Housing is becoming an increasingly topical conversation within political and media debate. A growing waiting list in Northern Ireland combined with a lack of appropriate funding to keep pace with rising homelessness and demand for social housing has brought us to a moment of crisis today.
The commitment to “provide more social, affordable and sustainable housing” contained in the Northern Ireland Executive’s draft Programme for Government is welcome – now delivery on this aspiration is absolutely essential.
The initial capital budget for 2024/5 given to the Department for Communities will only allow for up to 400 new social homes to be started in 2024/5. The number of social housing new starts over the last four years has been: 2,403, 1,713, 1,956 and 1,506. This is an average of 1,894 over the last four years. The Minister for Communities Gordon Lyons MLA has recently outlined that the target he had set for social housing new starts in 2024/5 was 2,000 homes. The anticipated budget capital budget provided to his Department will only allow for up to 20% of that target to be met.
This drastic cut to social housing new builds frustrates the policy direction of the Executive, including the New Decade, New Approach commitment for a Programme for Government, which included a ‘specific focus on ensuring every household has access to a good quality, affordable and sustainable home.’ It also undermines the policy direction set out in the Homelessness Strategy 2022–27 and the draft Housing Supply Strategy. Further, the inevitable outworkings of this decision will result in increased homelessness and people waiting longer in temporary accommodation thus adding pressure on the NIHE, health and education budgets. The reality is that this society urgently needs more social housing. However, this budget, passed by the Executive collectively, has instead dramatically reduced the number of new social homes which can be started this year
In the past three years of the Social Housing Development Programme (SHDP), 2022 – 2024, the projected housing need across Northern Ireland has increased by 23%. This trend is currently not being matched by new build completions through the SHDP. Over the past three years, the projected average need has been 1,556 but actual SHDP completions has averaged 1,229 per annum over the same period
Housing associations are willing and able to deliver in excess of 2,000 new social homes per annum, with in–house expertise in developing new schemes combined with robust financial planning. All they need is for government to provide the green light with adequate funding. The current model for financing new social housing in Northern Ireland is effective and provides value for money for public expenditure because for every £100 provided from the public purse via the SHDP, housing associations can raise an additional £84, thus ensuring we can deliver as many new homes as possible every year.
The Northern Ireland Housing Executive has established a new build target of 2,300 social homes per annum from 2024/25, revised down from its initial target of 3,000 per annum, and has projected a new build requirement of 24,992 homes for the period 2023 – 2028. The housing association sector here can deliver these targets, but without an adequate budget to help fund they are unlikely to be met.
To minimise or eliminate any adverse impacts in allocations of the Departments’ budget going forward, it is imperative that the Executive delivers a multi–year budget in tandem with the housing mission outlined in the newly published draft Programme for Government. This can give housing associations a pipeline of funding that can help deliver and plan a strategic outcome for new build social housing that gives certainty. At present, housing associations plan their new build developments on estimated budgets but with no real certainty due to annual standalone budgets, housing associations are exposed in any shortfalls, such as those they are facing this year with an expected decrease in new build starts of 73% year on year (1,508 in 2023/24 against an estimated 400 in 2024/25).
The new Labour government has been clear on the need for significant housing programs across England, and in particular the biggest increase in social and affordable housebuilding in a generation. This has been reinforced in the recent King’s Speech and the commitment to “turbocharging building of houses” through legislative change.
In reality, the housing waiting list and the social housing budget in Northern Ireland are going in very different directions, at a rapidly increasing pace. While figures showed an 18% increase in the number of applicants on the waiting list over the last ten years, the budget available for new build social housing is shrinking. The expected 73% year on year decrease in new build starts will occur in this context.
If this is not addressed, then the Assembly is effectively waving a white flag and accepting that we cannot realistically provide housing for our citizens in need. In the first quarter of this year alone more than 850 applicants presented as being in housing need; but as things stand, we will be building less than half that number of homes over a whole year. An appropriate housing supply strategy provides the perfect foundation for people, communities and the economy to thrive, but for now, we lack clarity on how and where any strategy will take us.
Seamus Leheny, Chief Executive, The Northern Ireland Federation of Housing Associations
